EIW Today - June 23rd, 2025

Prism Group's Daily Summary

TAX BILL ENTERS CRITICAL WEEK AS GOP FACES POLICY, PROCEDURAL HURDLES… With just days before a self-imposed July 4 deadline, Senate Republicans are racing to finalize and pass the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” but face major obstacles after the Senate parliamentarian struck key provisions as non-compliant with the reconciliation process’ so-called Byrd Rule—including cuts to SNAP and CFPB defunding. The ruling is forcing GOP leaders to rewrite parts of the bill and recalculate the math, risking internal conflict with House Republicans and threatening key priorities. Meanwhile, as Senate Finance prepares for a crucial meeting with the parliamentarian today, Trump and GOP leadership are expected to apply pressure on holdouts to secure passage this week.

MEGA-BILL MOVES FORWARD DESPITE AI PROVISION CONCERNS… On Saturday, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough approved the Senate’s revised version of the GOP “mega-bill,” despite its controversial clause that would place a 10-year moratorium on enforcing state and local artificial intelligence laws. Commerce Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) revised the House-passed AI moratorium to try and comply with the chamber’s budgetary rules, and in doing so he made it a condition that to receive billions in federal broadband expansion funds, the moratorium must be upheld. Many Senate Republicans, as well as House Representatives, have expressed opposition to the provision, and have vowed to work with Democrats to remove the moratorium when the bill hits the floor. 

FEDERAL RESERVE WARNS OF RISING STAGFLATION RISKS… In light of President Trump’s tariff policy and tensions in the Middle East, the Federal Reserve has expressed concerns about potential economic “stagflation” – without explicitly labeling their apprehensions as such. Economic projections released by Fed officials predict a rise in unemployment and inflation coupled with slowed economic growth. Analysts caution these conditions may lead the economy to a "stagnationary” state, not seen since the 1970s. Because of stagnation risks and new tariffs on steel, food and beverage companies are left particularly vulnerable and prudent for what lies ahead.

OIL PRICES FLUCTUATE AS MARKET REACTS TO IRANIAN RESPONSE… Oil prices plunged 4% Monday afternoon after Iran’s attack on an American military base in Qatar, despite surging Sunday evening to the highest levels under the Trump Administration following American bombings on three Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday. Despite clear indications from the United States that it does not wish to escalate the conflict with Iran, Tehran has now retaliated and still may take action such as closing access to the Strait of Hormuz, which would have significant impact upon the oil market. However, traders now seem to be betting that Iran doesn’t have the willingness nor capability to effectively retaliate against the US long-term. While some analysts are confident that the US and its OPEC allies currently hold enough product to meet demand even in the event of escalation, detractors wonder whether the current pricing adequately affects the level of risk inherent to conflict with Tehran. US crude oil futures have been subjected to intense volatility in the previous two days, with that market uncertainty likely to trickle down to commercial gasoline prices on the July 4th weekend.

THE STATE OF THE STATES

SESSIONS BY THE NUMBERS: 

Twelve legislatures are in regular session. Maine is in special session.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: 

Lawmakers in Wisconsin approved legislation allowing ride-hailing and food delivery platforms to contribute to flex benefit accounts to cover time off, health insurance or retirement savings for gig drivers. They join Alabama and Tennessee, where governors signed portable benefit bills in April, and Utah, where a first-in-the-nation bill was signed in 2023.

Maine lawmakers have approved legislation requiring the state to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2040. The bill will require the state to expand renewable energy to 90% of its usage by then, with the remaining 10% to come from clean energy sources like hydropower. 

LAWMAKERS... IN OR OUT? 

The House... convenes today at 12:00 PM. The full schedule may be found here. 

The Senate... convenes today at 4:30 PM. The full schedule may be found here. 

HAPPENING ON THE HILL  

The House...  

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/23 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Budget Hearing – Fiscal Year 2026 Request for the Department of Justice.”

Committee on Small Business will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Securing America's Mineral Future: Unlocking the Economic Value Beneath Our Feet.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Health Subcommittee Hearing: The Fiscal Year 2026 Department of Health and Human Services Budget.”

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:00 AM entitled “The Federal Reserve’s Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report.”

Committee on Natural Resources will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Legislative Hearing on H.R. 1676, H.R. 3538, H.R. 3857 & H.R. 3858 | Water, Wildlife and Fisheries Subcommittee.”

Committee on Natural Resources will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Enhancing Educational Outcomes in Indian Country: Postsecondary Education at the Bureau of Indian Education | Joint Oversight Hearing.” 

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Member Day.”

Committee on Ways and Means, Health Subcommittee will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 9:00 AM entitled, “Health Subcommittee Hearing on Health at Your Fingertips: Harnessing the Power of Digital Health Data.”

Committee on Foreign Affairs will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Spies, Lies, and Mismanagement: Examining the U.S. Agency for Global Media’s Downfall.”

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Reassessing Sarbanes-Oxley: The Cost of Compliance in Today’s Capital Markets.”

Committee on Natural Resources will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Full Committee Markup.”

Committee on Ways and Means, Social Security and Work & Welfare Subcommittees will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Joint Social Security and Work & Welfare Subcommittee Hearing with the Commissioner of Social Security, Frank J. Bisignano.”

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “From Watchdog to Attack Dog: Examining the CFPB’s Chopra-era Assault on Disfavored Industries.”

Committee on Foreign Affairs, South and Central Asia Subcommittee will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Assessing the Terror Threat Landscape in South and Central Asia and Examining Opportunities for Cooperation.”

Committee on Natural Resources, Federal Lands Subcommittee will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Oversight Hearing.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce, Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade Subcommittee will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “CMT Hearing: Looking Under the Hood: The State of NHTSA and Motor Vehicle Safety.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce, Environment Subcommittee will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Environment Hearing: A Decade Later: A Review of Congressional Action, Environmental Protection Agency Rules, and Beneficial Use Opportunities for Coal Ash.”

The Senate...    

Committee on the Judiciary will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Thin Blue Line Protecting America from the Cartels.”

Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:30 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Navy.” 

Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 10:30 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Veterans Affairs.”

Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy, and Consumer Rights will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 2:30 PM entitled, “Regulatory Burdens to Unlock Innovation and Spur New Entry.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/24 at 3:00 PM entitled, “Exploring Bipartisan Legislative Frameworks for Digital Asset Market Structure.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Justice.”

Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Nomination of Susan Monarez to be Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Health and Human Services.”

Committee on the Judiciary will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Nominations.”

Committee on the Judiciary, Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action, and Federal Rights Subcommittee will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/25 at 2:30 PM entitled, “Enter the Dragon—China and the Left’s Lawfare Against American Energy Dominance.”

Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 9:30 AM entitled, “Nominations.”

Committee on the Judiciary will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/26 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Executive Business Meeting.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Defense Subcommittee will hold a hearing Thursday 6/26 at 10:30 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Air Force and Space Force.”

BILLS OF INTEREST 

Rep. Gus Bilirakis (R-FL-12) introduced HR 4056 to amend the Social Security Act to permit a private cause of action for damages in the case of a group health plan which fails to provide for primary payment or appropriate reimbursement. 

Rep. Randy Fine (R-FL-6) introduced HR 4054 to amend the Higher Education Act of 1965 to reform accreditation.

AT THE AGENCIES  

The U.S. Department of Labor 

The Department of Labor has issued new guidance for farmers on H-2A worker regulations. This will suspend the Biden administration’s 2024 farmworker rule and instead “provide clarity for American farmers while also aligning with President Trump’s ongoing commitment to strictly enforcing U.S. immigration laws.” 

The U.S. Department of the Treasury 

The Treasury has announced 5 new appointments. Tyler Badgley, formerly the department’s Executive Secretary, will serve as Deputy General Counsel. Francis Brooke will serve as Counselor to the Secretary. Donald Korb, a practicing attorney with an extensive background in tax, has been nominated by President Trump to serve as the Chief Counsel of the International Revenue Service. Rachel Miller, who joins the department from Chain Bridge Bank, will serve as Executive Secretary. Christopher Pilkerton will serve as Acting General Counsel of the Department of the Treasury. 

The U.S. Department of Commerce 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates. 

The U.S. Trade Representative 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates. 

The U.S. Small Business Administration 

The Small Business Administration is offering disaster relief to Illinois private nonprofits in the form of low interest disaster loans, and has also opened additional disaster loan outreach centers in Michigan and Indiana.

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