EIW Today - June 25th, 2025

Prism Group's Daily Summary

RECONCILIATION PACKAGE BATTLE LINES HARDEN AS GOP SCRAMBLES TO FINALIZE TAX PACKAGE… Congressional Republicans are in a race to finalize their “big, beautiful bill” by the July 4 deadline, but deep divisions remain between the House and Senate versions—particularly over spending levels and key tax provisions. The Senate’s tax package carries a projected $4.2 trillion price tag, significantly higher than the House’s $3.8 trillion target, creating friction over how to reconcile differences and whether offsets are sufficient. Speaker Mike Johnson has warned House Republicans to stay flexible, signaling a possible conference process if Senate changes prove too drastic, while hardline conservatives like Reps. Chip Roy and Andy Harris have threatened to tank any compromise they view as fiscally irresponsible. Meanwhile, provisions like SALT relief, Medicaid cuts, and the permanence of certain tax breaks remain unresolved, with leadership facing both procedural hurdles and internal pushback as time runs short.

US MANUFACTURING BOOM COLLIDES WITH LABOR SHORTAGES… In spite of initiatives to promote skilled US labor, efforts to revive American manufacturing have been hampered by the shortage of qualified blue-collar workers. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 400,000 manufacturing jobs are left vacant – a figure that is expected to rise as companies become less reliant on production abroad. Analysts attribute this deficit to the increased demand on American manufacturing, coupled with major demographic shifts: baby boomers retiring and young adults opting to go to college. Manufacturing chief executive David Gitlin stresses, “for every 20 job postings that we have, there is one qualified applicant right now,” expressing concern over how this shortfall may disrupt supply chains and manufacturing for American businesses.  

JOHNSON WARNS GOP OF MEDICAID BACKLASH IN 2026… Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has privately expressed worry that Senate Republicans could cost the GOP its House majority in 2026 should they push through the steep Medicaid cuts within the current Senate version of the Big Beautiful Bill. Other influential Republicans have indicated similar political fears, with Sen. Tillis (R-NC) cautioning the GOP that these cuts could become the same sort of political albatross that the Affordable Care Act was for Democrats. Johnson and Senate Majority Leader Thune not only must navigate this precarious political position moving forward, but also imminent rulings from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate’s previous budget deal with the House majority, and how to assuage policy concerns from more moderate Senators such as Susan Collins (R-ME).

POWELL SIGNALS FED WILL HOLD STEADY DESPITE THE PRESIDENT'S WISHES… Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated to the House Financial Services Committee the Fed’s likelihood to hold interest rates steady to head off the threat of tariff-induced inflation, despite continued pressure from President Trump and his Congressional allies. Powell argued that the Fed’s obligation is “to keep longer-term inflation expectations well-anchored and prevent a one-time increase in price from becoming an ongoing inflation problem.” Powell did leave open the possibility of lowering rates should the labor market begin to show cracks or if inflation does not escalate as quickly as anticipated later this summer - with the former being increasingly plausible given reduced immigration. 

THE STATE OF THE STATES

SESSIONS BY THE NUMBERS: 

Twelve legislatures are in regular session. Maine is in special session.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: 

Gov. Tina Kotek (D) has signed legislation providing unemployment benefits to striking workers. The bill will make Oregon the first state to provide benefits to public employees on strike, capped at ten weeks. New York, New Jersey and Washington grant benefits to striking private sector workers.

The Wisconsin legislature has approved a bill launching a site study to find the best location for a future nuclear power plant to be built near Madison. Another bill would establish a nuclear summit in Wisconsin, set for 2028.

LAWMAKERS... IN OR OUT? 

The House... convenes today at 10:00 AM. The full schedule may be found here. 

The Senate... convenes today at 3:30 PM. The full schedule may be found here. 

HAPPENING ON THE HILL  

The House...  

Committee on Foreign Affairs will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Spies, Lies, and Mismanagement: Examining the U.S. Agency for Global Media’s Downfall.”

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Reassessing Sarbanes-Oxley: The Cost of Compliance in Today’s Capital Markets.”

Committee on Natural Resources will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Full Committee Markup.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Full Committee: Markup.”

Committee on Ways and Means, Social Security and Work & Welfare Subcommittees will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Joint Social Security and Work & Welfare Subcommittee Hearing with the Commissioner of Social Security, Frank J. Bisignano.”

Committee on Finance will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “From Watchdog to Attack Dog: Examining the CFPB’s Chopra-era Assault on Disfavored Industries.”

Committee on Foreign Affairs, South and Central Asia Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Assessing the Terror Threat Landscape in South and Central Asia and Examining Opportunities for Cooperation.”

Committee on Natural Resources, Federal Lands Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Oversight Hearing.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce, Commerce, Manufacturing, and Trade Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “CMT Hearing: Looking Under the Hood: The State of NHTSA and Motor Vehicle Safety.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce, Environment Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Environment Hearing: A Decade Later: A Review of Congressional Action, Environmental Protection Agency Rules, and Beneficial Use Opportunities for Coal Ash.”

The Senate...    

Committee on Appropriations, Full Committee will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 2:30 PM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Special Message”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee will hold a hearing TODAY,6 /25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Justice.”

Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Nomination of Susan Monarez to be Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Health and Human Services.”

Committee on the Judiciary will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Nominations.”

Committee on the Judiciary, Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action, and Federal Rights Subcommittee will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/25 at 2:30 PM entitled, “Enter the Dragon—China and the Left’s Lawfare Against American Energy Dominance.”

Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 9:30 AM entitled, “Nominations.”

Committee on the Judiciary will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Executive Business Meeting.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Defense Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tomorrow, 6/26 at 10:30 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Air Force and Space Force.”

BILLS OF INTEREST 

Rep. Roger Williams (R-TX-25) introduced HR 4118 to amend the Internal Revenue Code to terminate certain production and investment tax credits for wind, solar, and battery energy storage.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-WA-7) introduced HR 4104 to expand access to health insurance to immigrants and their families through the removal of legal and policy barriers. 

AT THE AGENCIES  

The U.S. Department of Labor 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury 

The U.S.-UK Financial Regulatory Working Group held its 11th meeting in London on June 3, 2025, focusing on economic stability, financial regulation, digital innovation, and investment environments. Officials discussed developments in banking, cybersecurity, and digital assets, including stablecoin legislation and cross-border payment systems. Both sides shared approaches to AI in financial services and reaffirmed cooperation through global bodies like the G20 and Financial Stability Board. The group plans to meet again by early 2026 to continue strengthening regulatory alignment and financial resilience.

The U.S. Department of Commerce 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates. 

The U.S. Trade Representative 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates. 

The U.S. Small Business Administration 

The Small Business Administration announced it will be reinstating a rule to require government contractors to return to work. Beginning October 1st, participants in SBA’s 8(a) Business Development Program will once again be required to have a physical office within the geographic area where they are bidding on federal construction contracts. The COVID-era suspension of the rule ends September 30. 

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