EIW Today - June 5th, 2025

Prism Group's Daily Summary

DUAL CBO SCORES PROVIDE BOTH COMFORT AND ANGST FOR REPUBLICANS… The Congressional Budget Office released two estimates yesterday that paint a conflicting fiscal picture for Republicans. On one hand, the official score estimates the “One Big Beautiful Bill” reconciliation package would increase the federal deficit by over $2.3 trillion over the next decade, due to an extension of several expiring tax provisions partially offset by cuts to certain mandatory spending. On the other hand, a separate CBO analysis of President Trump’s new tariff regime suggests it could effectively negate those deficits by generating up to $3 trillion in revenue over the same period, though it would also shrink GDP growth and raise inflation. The Senate now faces the difficult task of reconciling these mixed fiscal signals amid intraparty skepticism.

DIRECTOR VOUGHT SEEKING OMB FUNDING BOOST AMID FEDERAL CUTS… Yesterday afternoon, OMB Director Russell Vought proposed the Trump Administration’s FY2026 budget, calling for a 13% increase in funding for OMB amounting to $146 million. Amid extensive funding cuts, Vought claims increased funding is required to continue the administration’s major deregulatory effort. Additionally, as part of the FY2026 budget, the White House formally called for rescinding upwards of $9 billion in already approved spending, clawing back appropriated funds from agencies targeted by the Department of Government Efficiency. 

U.S. SEEKS TO MAINTAIN COMPETITIVE EDGE IN BIOTECH… A study by Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs found that among five critical tech sectors—AI, biotechnology, semiconductors, space, and quantum computing—China has the “most immediate opportunity to overtake the US” in biotechnology innovation. While the US currently leads in all five areas, the narrow gap in biotech suggests that global leadership in biotech innovation could soon shift. The US National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology warned, “There will be a ChatGPT moment for biotechnology, and if China gets there first, no matter how fast we run, we will never catch up.”

AI PROVISIONS IN THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL UNDER SCRUTINY… A federal provision that would block states from enforcing new AI rules over the next decade was tucked away in the tax bill and is drawing backlash from a range of lawmakers across the political spectrum. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TE), Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA), and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) argue that stopping states from implementing AI policy can stifle innovation and due to AI’s vast abilities, state flexibility to respond to new trends may help deter unwanted outcomes. With AI in its infancy, many lawmakers have taken the “laissez-faire” approach to regulation in order to maximize innovation and outcompete China.

THE STATE OF THE STATES

SESSIONS BY THE NUMBERS: 

Eighteen states are in regular session. Maine, Missouri, and Mississippi are in special session.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: 

The California Senate has approved legislation requiring operators of companion chatbot platforms to remind users every three hours that the chatbots aren’t human. Operators would be required to implement protocols addressing suicidal ideation or self-harm.

The North Carolina Senate has unanimously approved legislation allowing larger class sizes in child care centers. Lawmakers also approved a bill to allow home-based child care centers to be treated as residences rather than commercial buildings.

LAWMAKERS... IN OR OUT? 

The House... convenes today at 10:00 AM. The full schedule may be found here. 

The Senate... convenes today at 10:00 AM. The full schedule may be found here. 

HAPPENING ON THE HILL  

The House...  

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Framework for the Future: Reviewing Data Privacy in Today’s Financial System.”

Committee on Small Business will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Investing in America: How Private Equity Empowers Main Street.”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 11:00 AM entitled, “Budget Hearing – Fiscal Year 2026 Request for the Department of Commerce.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce, Energy Subcommittee will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Energy Subcommittee: Markup”

Committee on Foreign Affairs will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05, at 2:00 PM entitled, “After Assad: The Future of Syria”

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Markup of Various Measures" 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Budget Hearing– U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Oversight Hearing– The Department of Defense”

Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Fiscal Year 2026 Department of Energy Budget”

Committee on Natural Resources will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Legislative Hearing on H.R. 1045, H.R. 1655, H.R. 3187 & H.R. 3444 | Federal Lands Subcommittee”

Committee on Small Business, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, and Workforce Development Subcommittee will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Beyond the Ballpark: The Role of Minor League Baseball in Economic Growth”

Committee on Foreign Affairs will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 2 PM entitled “Building Bridges, Countering Rivals: Strengthening U.S.-ASEAN Ties to Combat Chinese Influence”

Committee on Ways and Means will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/11 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Full Committee Hearing with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent”

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/12 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Evaluating the Defense Production Act” 

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing Thursday, 6/12 at 2:00 PM entitled, “Housing in the Heartland: Addressing our Rural Housing Needs” 

The Senate...    

Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Nominations of Penny Schwinn to be Deputy Secretary of Education, Department of Education, Kimberly Richey to be Assistant Secretary for Civil Rights, Department of Education, Daniel Aronowitz to be Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Employee Benefits Security Administration, Department of Labor and David Keeling to be Assistant Secretary of Labor for the Occupational Safety and Health Administration.”

Committee on Judiciary will hold a hearing TODAY, 6/05 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Executive Business Meeting.”

Committee on Foreign Relations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Nominations”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 10:00 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the National Institutes of Health”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 6/10 at 2:00 PM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Defense”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday, 6/11 at 10:30 AM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the United States Forest Service”

Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship will hold a hearing Wednesday 6/11 at 2:30 PM entitled, “Reforms After the Storms: Conducting Oversight of SBA’s Disaster Loan Program” 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday 6/11 at 2:30 PM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Army Corps of Engineers and the Bureau of Reclamation”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday 6/11 at 3:00 PM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of Housing and Urban Development”

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday 6/11 at 3:30 PM entitled, “A Review of the President’s Fiscal Year 2026 Budget Request for the Department of the Treasury” 

BILLS OF INTEREST 

Rep. Dwight Evans (D-PA-3) introduced HR 3681 to direct the Secretary of Labor to award grants to certain entities for workforce training programs. 

Rep. Frank D. Lucas (R-OK-3) introduced HR 3960 to codify the Office of the Strategic Hub for Innovation and Financial Technology of the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA-10) introduced HR 3679 to require the development of resources for small businesses in utilizing articulation intelligence via the National Institute of Standards and Technology.

Rep. Mike Kelly (R-PA-16) introduced HR 3687 to amend the Internal Revenue Code to renew and enhance opportunity zones.

Rep. Sam Graves (R-MO-6) introduced HR 3684 to provide for enhanced payments to rural health care providers under Medicare and Medicaid.

AT THE AGENCIES  

The U.S. Department of Labor 

The U.S. Department of Labor announced the launch of its opinion letter program. This expands the department’s longstanding commitment to providing meaningful compliance assistance that helps workers, employers and other stakeholders understand how federal labor laws apply in specific workplace situations.  

The U.S. Department of Labor released the weekly unemployment insurance claims report.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury 

Check back next week for possible updates. 

The U.S. Department of Commerce 

U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick outlined an initiative aiming to advance the United States’ leadership in artificial intelligence. It seeks to transform the U.S. AI Safety Institute into the “pro-Innovation, pro-science” U.S. Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI). The plan includes expanding AI research and development funding, improving computing infrastructure, supporting workforce training in AI, establishing new guidelines for AI ethics, and strengthening national cybersecurity. 

The U.S. Trade Representative  

U.S. Ambassador Jamieson Greer met with European Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič in Paris during the OECD trade ministerial to discuss ongoing U.S.-EU trade negotiations. Ambassador Greer noted that negotiations are advancing quickly and the EU demonstrated willingness to collaborate toward achieving reciprocal trade. 

The U.S. Small Business Administration 

Check back next week for possible updates. 

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