EIW Today - May 19th, 2025

Prism Group's Daily Summary

ONE HURDLE CLEARED, ONE MORE (BIG ONE) TO GO… Late Sunday night, the House Budget Committee narrowly advanced the Republicans’ reconciliation bill after four conservative hardliners voted “present” to avoid derailing it (while also signaling their disapproval). Speaker Mike Johnson faces tough negotiations this week between conservatives pushing deep Medicaid cuts, tax reform, and clean-energy credit rollbacks, and moderates resisting many of those changes. Tensions remain high over issues like Medicaid FMAP adjustments and the SALT deduction, with no deal yet in sight. GOP leaders hope to finalize the package by July 4, but the Senate is expected to significantly revise any House-passed bill.

MARKETS CONTINUE TO FACE UNCERTAINTY… Even as the GOP advances their reconciliation bill, the future of US markets continue to be questioned. Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating causing 30-year treasury bond yields to increase by 13 basis points, over 5%, signaling that global investors are concerned with America’s ballooning $36T debt. By August or September, Congress will need to increase or suspend the nation’s debt ceiling, which could further exacerbate a decrease in investor confidence. 

TRUMP’S 90-DAY TARIFF PAUSE WITH CHINA COULD BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE FOR SOME SMALL BUSINESSES… While the Trump administration’s latest 90-day tariff reduction deal with China has temporarily lowered rates on imports from 145% to 30%, many small business owners say the short window creates more uncertainty than relief. Some entrepreneurs are unsure if their products will arrive before tariffs possibly spike again. With no clarity on what happens after the 90 days, some business owners are pausing expansion and investment plans altogether, calling the situation a high-stakes gamble. As one entrepreneur put it, the move is “a mix of relief, but also frustration.” For small businesses with tight margins and long production timelines, policy instability is proving just as costly as the tariffs themselves.

THE STATE OF THE STATES

SESSIONS BY THE NUMBERS: 

Twenty-six states are in regular session. Maine is in special session.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING: 

New Jersey Transit’s four-day rail shutdown is over after the engineers’ union approved a last-minute deal Sunday night, ending the state’s first rail strike in more than 40 years. While details of the agreement remain under wraps until a full union ratification vote, officials called it “fair and fiscally responsible,” saying it balances wage demands with work-rule concessions. Trains will stay idle Monday so crews can reposition equipment and run safety checks, with the full schedule slated to resume at dawn on Tuesday, May 20. Commuters are urged to work from home one more day or use buses, PATH and ferries, which will keep cross-honoring rail tickets until service is restored.

Lawmakers in eleven states have introduced bills this year to add new regulations on data centers. Bills would require data center operators to disclose power and water usage data and follow climate requirements. Others would set special power rates for data centers to keep costs down for residential consumers. Data centers are expected to drive a sharp spike in demand for electricity of up to 50% by 2040. 

The Connecticut Senate has approved legislation requiring service providers to use “all-in” pricing disclosures, eliminating so-called junk fees that add to a product’s costs. The bill would require appliances, televisions or toys that contain cameras or microphones to ask permission to sell consumer data.

LAWMAKERS... IN OR OUT? 

The House... convenes today at 12:00 PM. The full schedule may be found here. 

The Senate... convenes today at 3:00 PM. The full schedule may be found here. 

HAPPENING ON THE HILL  

The House...

Committee on Oversight and Government Reform will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Mandates, Meddling, and Mismanagement: The IRA’s Threat to Energy and Medicine.”

Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Fiscal Year 2026 Environmental Protection Agency Budget.” 

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Day One: Markup of Various Measures.” 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:00 AM entitled, “Budget Hearing - Department of the Interior.” 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:00 AM entitled, “The Fiscal Year 2026 Environmental Protection Agency Budget.” 

Committee on Education and Workforce will hold a hearing Tuesday, 5/20 at 10:15 AM entitled, “Empowering the Modern Worker.”

Committee on Financial Services will hold a hearing Wednesday, 5/21 at 10:00 AM entitled “Day Two: Markup of Various Measures.” 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday, 5/21 at 10:00 AM entitled “Budget Hearing - U.S. Department of Education.” 

The Senate...      

Committee on Small Business will hold a hearing Wednesday, 5/21 at 10:00 AM entitled “Fueling America’s Manufacturing Comeback.” 

Committee on Appropriations will hold a hearing Wednesday, 5/21 at 2:30 PM entitled, “Hearings to examine proposed budget estimates for fiscal year 2026 for the Small Business Administration.”

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs will hold a hearing Thursday, 5/22 at 10:00 AM entitled “Securing America: Key Authorities Under the Defense Production Act.”

BILLS OF INTEREST 

Rep Jefferson Van Drew introduced HR 3375 to require that the retail list price for certain prescription drugs and biological products may not exceed the average retail list price for the drug or biological product among certain nations.

AT THE AGENCIES  

The U.S. Department of Labor 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates.  

The U.S. Department of the Treasury 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates.  

The U.S. Department of Commerce 

Secretary Lutnick released a statement announcing a revamp of the Tech Hubs program. 

The U.S. Trade Representative  

Check back tomorrow for possible updates.  

The U.S. Small Business Administration 

Check back tomorrow for possible updates. 

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